Welcome to the Clubhouse
Updated: 6 days ago
Last month I joined the 7 million Americans¹ looking for work. So far, my three interviews have come from personal connections or past work experience. My attempts to use my two degrees to break into a career in economics have gotten me nada. That’s not bad luck. Our labor market is fast becoming a clubhouse. If you’re in, you’re good. If you’re on the outside looking in, good luck.
The Wrong Number
Instead of telling this story, people grasp at headline numbers that say nothing by themselves. Take job growth. September added just 29,000 jobs². That sounds bad until you realize unemployment has barely budged. Job growth is only good when it’s enough to keep unemployment flat or push it lower. It’s what we economists (speak it into existence) call the breakeven level of employment. Now if you ask why so few new jobs are keeping unemployment flat, you’re getting somewhere.
Fewer People in Line
It turns out not many people are joining me in the job hunt. Part of that is retirees leaving the job market. This summer, labor force participation fell to its lowest in 50 years³. People called it an exodus⁴. It wasn’t. Almost half of the drop came from the government updating its population estimates to reflect more retirees. They didn't quit. They had already retired. If anything, too many Americans aren’t even starting their careers.
The youths seem to be staying forever young. From 1980 to 2000, 53% of 16–19 year olds and 77% of 20–24 year olds were in the labor force. Today, it’s 37% and 71%⁵. More AP classes may be the cause here. Even so, it's leading to less work experience.
Inside the Clubhouse
In their defense, our low-hire, low-fire labor market doesn’t help them. Layoffs are near the lowest on record⁶, and unemployment insurance claims hit their lowest level since 1969 this summer⁷. It looks like the HubSpot and Salesforce layoffs blowing up my LinkedIn feed are the outliers.
Outside Looking In
Insiders aren’t leaving either. People aren’t quitting, and if nobody leaves or moves up, there are no seats to fill⁹. The share of workers hired each month is near its lowest since the early 2010s⁸. The only reason that’s not horrible is that fewer people are looking. For my brothers and sisters in arms, about one in four of us get hired each month¹⁰. Not bad. Not great.
Headline numbers don’t speak to the people outside the clubhouse. Initial claims only come from people laid off. Insiders. They don’t count recent graduates, people re-entering the workforce, or contract workers. Same story with unemployment: if you’ve stopped looking, you’re not counted as unemployed at all. Headline numbers alone keep these people out of sight and out of mind. Cheering a stable, low-growth labor market gives the younger generation a valid reason to feel shorted.
Opening the Door
Maybe unemployment insurance can broaden to anyone in the labor force not yet employed. Denmark already does a version of this for new grads¹¹. Yes, paying people while they search can mean they search longer. But a grad who can’t land a first job doesn’t build the experience that gets them the second one. We can’t force firms to hire, but we can encourage firms to hire out of high school as an alternative to college. We can stop handing out massive loans for degrees that don’t pay. We can make this more fair.
Until then, watch the story beneath the headline indicators. And if you’re hiring, hit me up. Better yet, subscribe so I can exit the rat race for good and keep filling up your inbox with better takes.
“Employment Situation News Release - 2026 M09 Results.” U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2 Oct. 2026, www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_10022026.htm.
“Employment Situation News Release - 2026 M09 Results.” U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2 Oct. 2026, www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_10022026.htm.
Ferreira, Joana. “US Unemployment Rate Rises to 4.2% in September.” TRADING ECONOMICS, TRADING ECONOMICS, 2 Oct. 2026, tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate/news/589164.
Cox, Jeff. “Job Seekers Giving up: Labor Force Participation Rate Falls to Lowest in 50 Years, Outside of Covid Era.” CNBC, CNBC, 9 July 2026, www.cnbc.com/2026/07/02/job-seekers-giving-up-labor-force-participation-rate-falls-to-lowest-in-50-years-outside-of-covid-era.html.
“Labor Force Participation Rate - 16-19 Yrs.” FRED, 2 Oct. 2026, fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300012.
“Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey News Release - 2026 M08 Results.” U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 29 Sept. 2026, www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/jolts_09292026.htm.
“Office of Unemployment Insurance.” Office of Unemployment Insurance, Employment & Training Administration (ETA) - U.S. Department of Labor, oui.doleta.gov/unemploy/claims_arch.asp. Accessed 18 Oct. 2026.
“Hires: Total Nonfarm.” FRED, 29 Sept. 2026, fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSHIR.
“Hires: Total Nonfarm.” FRED, 29 Sept. 2026, fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSHIR.
“Labor Force Flows Unemployed to Employed.” FRED, 2 Oct. 2026, fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS17100000.
Unemployment Benefits for Recent Graduates, www.ca.dk/the-benefit-rules/unemployment-benefits-for-recent-graduates/. Accessed 18 Oct. 2026.
